Ontario COVID ‘cases continue to grow,’ new modelling shows

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Experience form other jurisdictions shows that lockdowns imposed earlier and more strictly result in a lower growth in rate of new cases, the modelling says.

“Based on experience in France and Australia, ‘hard lock-downs’ of 4-6 weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario to less than 1,000 per day and possibly much lower with increased testing and support,” the modelling report says. “With lower case numbers we can maintain safe ICU care for COVID-19 and non- COVID-19 patients who require it.”

Ontario reported its seventh day in a row of 2,100-plus daily cases Monday.

“Locally, there are 611 new cases in Toronto, 480 in Peel, 192 in York Region and 138 in Windsor-Essex County,” Health Minister Christine Elliott tweeted.

The province confirmed 17 more COVID-19-related deaths.

What Ontario’s New COVID Modelling Says

• Cases continue to grow and overall case levels are twice the “red” level. Percent positivity is flattening. Our ability to control case growth is still precarious.
• Continuing case growth will increase outbreaks in long-term care homes and other congregate settings.
• Under all scenarios, ICU occupancy will be above 300 beds within 10 days. Worst case scenarios show occupancy above 1,500 beds by mid-January.
• Based on experience in France and Australia, “hard lockdowns” of 4-6 weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario to less than 1,000 per day and possibly much lower with increased testing and support.
• With lower case numbers cases continue to grow and overall case levels are twice the “red” level. Percent positivity is flattening. Our ability to control case growth is still precarious.
• Continuing case growth will increase outbreaks in long-term care homes and other congregate settings.
• Under all scenarios, ICU occupancy will be above 300 beds within 10 days. Worst case scenarios show occupancy above 1,500 beds by mid-January.
• Based on experience in France and Australia, “hard lockdowns” of 4–6 weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario to less than 1,000 per day and possibly much lower with increased testing and support.
• With lower case numbers we can maintain safe ICU care for COVID-19 and non- COVID-19 patients who require it.
• As noted in previous briefings, public health restrictions will require more resources (e.g. testing, isolation/quarantine support) in communities and essential service workplaces where exposure is higher.

aartuso@postmedia.com