President of Press Club Belarus and staff detained in Minsk

Belarus has been rocked by protests for almost four months. Since the controversial presidential election on 9 August, the opposition has not stopped demanding changes in the country. It is clear to everyone that Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for 26 years, must leave. But this is not happening yet. In the main cities of Belarus, mass rallies are regularly organized , which the authorities disperse. Hundreds of people are being arrested, and images of the crackdown on demonstrations have become familiar on world TV screens, writes Alex Ivanov, Moscow correspondent.

Europe and America have already imposed all possible sanctions against Minsk and constantly say that the government in the country is illegitimate. However, there is no real change. All neighbors have turned against Belarus, and the informal leader of the protests – Tikhanovskaya – has already become a more popular character in the media than the indomitable President Trump.

What is really happening in this small country, where the people are persistently looking for ways to establish a better life and set a new order in their state?

Belarus is a former Republic of the once great Soviet Empire, which became part of the international geography and political system thanks to the skillful geopolitical surgery of the Soviet leaders who created the Soviet Union after the 1917 Communist revolution.

World history can hardly predict for sure whether the world’s chronicle would ever have known about countries like Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and many other parts of the former Soviet Union if the Russian Empire had not collapsed. This is not offensive at all to these countries, this is a mere reality. Now it’s part of the geopolitics that everyone has to reckon with and take for granted. History does not know the subjunctive mood. What happened, happened, and you can’t go back.

Belarus is going through a very difficult stage of its development. Unfortunately, most of its neighbors do not understand this and try to apply standard schemes and mechanisms of influence to the country. No one tries to understand the feelings of the people of this small country, which has a population of less than 10 million people, and comprehend what they really want.

Belarus has largely become a hostage to the collapse of the former Soviet Union. In 1991, this new post-Soviet state did not yet have the necessary elements of independence and democratic foundations. All this had a significant impact on the fact that the state power returned mainly to the previous methods of authoritarian rule, far from the principles of a market economy and democratic methods of government.

Now the country is in search of its identity. This is not easy. Unfortunately, the country is facing a lot of external pressure. Too many foreign players are trying to offer Belarus their own ways out of the crisis, which is unlikely to help the democratic forces in the country.

It is also clear that Lukashenko is trying to maintain his position and clings to power. He has long abandoned harsh anti-Russian rhetoric and is trying to demonstrate loyalty to Moscow. In part, he succeeds. Recently Minsk was visited by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov. Statements were made about the readiness to deepen bilateral cooperation.

In Russia, which itself is facing unprecedented international pressure over the Navalny case, Nord Stream 2, Iran, Ukraine and other claims, solidarity from Belarus seems to be beneficial. But this is only at first glance. The Kremlin is unlikely to be satisfied with a system crisis in its closest ally in the near future. Although Moscow is outwardly determined to support Minsk in its opposition to the West, this is not the case in strategic terms.

There is no doubt that Russia will continue to support Belarus. It is absolutely certain that Moscow will resist attempts to provoke any “color revolutions” in its neighbor’s realm.

However, the fate of Lukashenko is likely to be decided within the framework of a civilized transfer of power, since all the conditions for this are already ripe.