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Georgia Runoffs
● The Georgia Senate runoffs are finally upon us! Naturally, Daily Kos Elections will be liveblogging the results the moment polls close at 7 PM ET. Please join us both on our site and on Twitter, where we’ll be bringing you blow-by-blow coverage. Note, though, that we may not know the final outcome on Tuesday night: Jon Ossoff waited until the Friday after Election Day to kick off his runoff campaign, and the Associated Press only called a runoff late that night.
Campaign Action
There’s also one other important race on the ballot that’s been understandably overshadowed by the Senate elections: a runoff for a spot on Georgia’s five-member Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities across the state. Democrat Daniel Blackman forced a runoff by holding Republican incumbent Bubba McDonald to a 49.9-47.0 margin in the first round, and if Blackman wins, he’d be the first Democrat to serve on the commission in over a decade.
One key issue in the race has been electricity shutoffs during the pandemic. While the PSC initially placed a moratorium on such shutoffs, it unanimously lifted the freeze in July, allowing utility companies to cut power to over 40,000 customers over the summer—25% more than unusual. Activists attacked the decision for disproportionately impacting people of color, much like the coronavirus itself. We’ll be following the returns on Tuesday night for this contest, too.
Senate
● AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: Howard Fischer of the Miner takes a look at the potential 2022 fields for Senate and governor and suggests a few new possibilities. Fischer mentions GOP Rep. David Schweikert as a possibility to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and lists Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton as a potential candidate for governor.
● CA-Sen, CA-SoS: California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced shortly before Christmas that he would appoint Secretary of State Alex Padilla to succeed Vice President-elect Kamala Harris in the Senate, a move that will make Padilla the state’s first Latino senator. In turn, Newsom said he would elevate Assemblywoman Shirley Weber to Padilla’s post, which would make her the first Black person to serve as secretary of state. All are Democrats.
● FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who’s been mentioned as a potential 2022 candidate for Senate and governor, recently told the Tampa Bay Times that she’s considering her options. The paper also writes that both Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only Democrat who holds statewide office in Florida, and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine are “laying the groundwork” for a bid against GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, though neither appears to have said anything publicly yet.
● IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Republican state Rep. Tom Demmer acknowledged last month that he was considering a 2022 campaign for Senate, governor, or a different statewide office. Politico reports that Demmer is already getting assistance from former Sen. Mark Kirk, who lost re-election to Democrat Tammy Duckworth in 2016, in meeting potential donors.
● NC-Sen: Democratic state Sen. Sam Searcy, who had expressed interest in a U.S. Senate bid in late November, announced last month that he’d be resigning from the legislature. Searcy said in a statement, “Recently an unexpected opportunity to serve NC in a new role presented itself & I look forward to sharing more about that in the future,” but he did not address any future electoral plans.
● OR-Sen: Democratic incumbent Ron Wyden, who is 71, confirmed last week that he’d seek another term in the Senate.
● SD-Sen: Republican Sen. John Thune landed on Donald Trump’s shitlist for Christmas after the second-ranking GOP senator declared that any attempt to challenge the results of the Electoral College before Congress “would go down like a shot dog.” While Trump loves to make insulting comparisons to canines (he seems to think people dislike them?), he didn’t enjoy having his dreams likened to a doggy demise and tweeted, “RINO John Thune, ‘Mitch’s boy’, should just let it play out. South Dakota doesn’t like weakness. He will be primaried in 2022, political career over!!!”
Scarcely an hour later, the most obvious candidate to go after Thune, Gov. Kristi Noem, herself tweeted that the senator “is a friend of mine, and I will not be challenging him.” Noem, a Trump sycophant, added that she “will ask the people to give me an opportunity to continue serving them as Governor in 2022,” a far easier race to win as she continues to lay the groundwork for a 2024 presidential bid.
Trump, of course, did not accept that as an answer, tweeting again on New Year’s Day, “I hope to see the great Governor of South Dakota @KristiNoem, run against RINO @SenJohnThune, in the upcoming 2022 Primary.” A Noem spokesperson immediately responded that the governor’s “position hasn’t changed,” but Trump also insisted in his tweet that “if not Kristi, others are already lining up.” Since it’s Trump saying it, though, that means it’s almost certainly false.
● WI-Sen: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late December that he still hadn’t decided whether to seek re-election, though he implied he’d be more likely to run again if Democrats take control of the Senate following Tuesday’s runoffs in Georgia. Johnson did not address speculation that he could instead run for governor in 2022.
A number of Democrats, meanwhile, have publicly expressed interest in taking on Johnson for the first time. State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski told the paper she expected to reach a decision within the next few months, while Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry said he’d be making up his mind early this year. Nonprofit head Steven Olikara also said he was thinking about getting in, while Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes didn’t rule anything out when asked. Rep. Mark Pocan, though, said Monday that he’d stay in the House rather than run against Johnson.
Governors
● CA-Gov: Republican Kevin Faulconer, whose tenure as mayor of San Diego ended last month, announced Monday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential 2022 bid against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
● GA-Gov: Donald Trump has spent weeks loudly encouraging former Rep. Doug Collins to challenge Gov. Brian Kemp in the 2022 GOP primary, and Collins did not rule it out when asked just before the winter holidays. Collins would only say that he was focused on the Senate runoffs and refused to add anything more when directly asked about a potential campaign against Kemp.
Donald Trump Jr. also tweeted in December that former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker should run, though there’s no word that Walker is interested. The Daily Beast also mentions pro-Trump attorney and conspiracy theorist Lin Wood as a possibility, but we’ve likewise heard nothing from Wood.
● HI-Gov: Former Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa told the National Journal last month that she wasn’t ruling out a campaign to succeed termed-out Gov. David Ige, who beat her in the 2018 primary.
● MA-Gov: Republican incumbent Charlie Baker is eligible to run for a third term, but while his political team began laying the groundwork for a potential campaign all the way back in 2019, the Boston Herald’s Joe Battenfeld speculates that the governor may instead retire and support Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito to succeed him. Battenfeld notes that Baker’s fundraising has dramatically slowed over the last few months while Polito has been stockpiling money.
Either Baker or Polito could face primary opposition from the right if they do run. Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, a pro-Trump conservative who was the GOP’s 2018 nominee against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, told Battenfeld that he was considering a campaign for governor.
● MD-Gov: Maryland Matters recently mentioned Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez as a possible candidate for this open seat, and Perez doesn’t seem to be ruling it out. When Perez was asked about his future plans last month, he said he was focusing on the Georgia Senate runoffs, adding that “when my term ends, it doesn’t end until February, I’m going to focus on what’s next for me.”
● MN-Gov: While MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell sent confusing signals about his 2022 plans right after Election Day, he told the Star Tribune‘s Stephen Montemayor this week that he was “90 to 95%” likely to seek the GOP nomination. Another Republican who has shown interest in taking on Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, former state Sen. Scott Jensen, also said he hoped to decide within the first four months of this year.
Former state House Speaker Kurt Zellers also spoke with Montemayor, and while he didn’t express any interest in running himself, he rattled off a few other Republicans as possibilities: former Minnesota Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway; state Sen. Julie Rosen; and state Sen. Karin Housley, who was the party’s 2018 nominee for the U.S. Senate special election.
● NJ-Gov: Former Somerset County Freeholder Brian Levine, a Republican who lost re-election two months ago, recently told the New Jersey Globe that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential campaign against Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy this year.
● OR-Gov: The Willamette Week‘s Nigel Jaquiss recently mentioned state Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle as a potential Democratic candidate for 2022’s open seat race.
● VA-Gov: Del. Lee Carter, a Marine veteran and self-described democratic socialist, announced on New Year’s Day that he’d seek the Democratic nomination for this year’s open seat race.
House
● IA-02: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks was provisionally seated along with the rest of the 117th Congress when members were sworn in on Sunday, pending the outcome of an election challenge filed by her Democratic opponent, Rita Hart. Certified returns gave Miller-Meeks a six-vote win, but Hart has asked the House Administration Committee to review the results, saying that 22 lawful ballots were not counted.
Miller-Meeks has until Jan. 21 to submit a response, at which point the committee will weigh the matter and issue a report for consideration by the House as a whole recommending one of a number of options. Those could include rejecting the challenge, seating Hart instead of Miller-Meeks, conducting a further recount, or ordering a new election be held. The House would decide on a course of action based on a simple majority vote.
● IL-03: Conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski lost last March’s primary to progressive Marie Newman, who was sworn in Sunday as the new representative for Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District, but we unfortunately may not have seen the last of him. The now-former congressman’s father and predecessor, ex-Rep. Bill Lipinski, “hinted” to the Chicago Tribune that the younger Lipinski could challenge Newman. Bill Lipinski also added that he has two grandsons “who have very serious political opinions.”
For his part, the younger Lipinski said he’d be taking a new job and writing about his time as “a Catholic in public life,” and he did not address any future political prospects. Illinois Democrats will be in charge of the next round of redistricting, and it remains to be seen whether any changes they might make to this Chicago-area district could affect Lipinski’s calculus.
● LA-02: Republican Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin says it’s likely that a special election for Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District will take place on March 20, the same day as the special in the 5th District (see our separate LA-05 item below). Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond is slated to become a top adviser to the Biden administration, but he was sworn in to the 117th Congress on Sunday and has yet to step down from the House.
The Democratic field in this very blue district is still taking shape, but one notable candidate just took his name out of contention: State Sen. Cleo Fields announced Monday that he wouldn’t seek a return to the U.S. House after a 24-year absence.
● LA-05: Republican Luke Letlow died from complications of COVID-19 shortly before the new year, just weeks after winning an all-GOP runoff for Louisiana’s open 5th Congressional District and before he could be sworn in as a new member of Congress. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has called a special election for March 20, with a runoff on April 24 if necessary.
Letlow, who’d served as chief of staff to former Rep. Ralph Abraham, had sought to succeed his one-time boss after the congressman announced his retirement last year. Following Letlow’s death, Abraham indicated he would not try to reclaim his old seat, saying, “I don’t think that’s on my radar.” Meanwhile, state Rep. Lance Harris, who lost last month’s runoff to Letlow 62-38, said last week that it would be “inappropriate” to talk about his plans. Candidates will have until Jan. 22 to file.
● MD-01: Republican Rep. Andy Harris pledged to serve no more than six terms just before he was elected to the House in 2010, but the six-term incumbent refused to respond when the Baltimore Sun asked if he’d abide by that promise in 2022.
● NJ-07: State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. said last month that he’d mull his political future over the holidays, and Politico’s Matt Friedman reported Monday that the Republican is “expected to soon announce” if he’ll run for re-election this year. Friedman previously wrote that it was “almost taken for granted” that Kean would seek a rematch against Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in 2022, but that he might first have to win a competitive re-election battle for his seat in the state Senate—unless he bails on the legislature entirely.
● NM-01: A trio of Democrats announced over the holidays that they’d run to succeed Democratic Rep. Deb Haaland if she’s confirmed as interior secretary: state Sen. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, who took third in the 2018 primary; state Rep. Melanie Stansbury; and trial attorney Randi McGinn.
State Rep. Georgene Louis and state Auditor Brian Colon also said that they were considering seeking the Democratic nod, while Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver announced that she’d stay out of the race, as did state Rep. Javier Martínez. Milan Simonich of the Santa Fe New Mexican also mentions state Attorney General Hector Balderas as a possible Democratic contender, but there’s no word if he’s interested. Both the Democratic and Republican nominees in a special election will be chosen by party leaders, not by voters in a primary.
● NY-22: Following a court-ordered recanvass in all eight counties that make up New York’s 22nd Congressional District, Republican Claudia Tenney’s lead over Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi increased from 12 votes to 29, but the race is far from resolved. According to Syracuse.com, approximately 2,500 uncounted ballots are still being disputed and will be reviewed by the judge overseeing the case this week. Because of the long delay, the district is now without representation in the House, since there was no winner who could be sworn in when members took their oaths for the 117th Congress on Sunday.
● PA-08: Republican Jim Bognet indicated Monday that he was considering seeking a rematch against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who beat him 52-48 last year. Bognet put out a statement saying, “If Cartwright continues his unwavering support for Nancy Pelosi and AOC’s march from liberalism to socialism, I look forward to finishing what our grassroots campaign started in 2020 and giving him a rude awakening in November 2022.”
Legislatures
● AK State Senate, AK State House: Both chambers of Alaska’s legislature still have yet to pick new leaders despite the fact that Republicans won nominal majorities in the state Senate and House in November, though the Anchorage Daily News‘ James Brooks reports that GOP senators are optimistic they’ll reach an agreement before lawmakers convene on Jan. 19. Leaders in the House, however, think their impasse may not be resolved for some time, as was the case two years ago, when a bipartisan coalition did not strike a deal until mid-February.
Republicans hold 13 seats in the Senate to seven for Democrats, but internal disputes have prevented the GOP from taking control. The chief fault-line is over a rule requiring members of the majority to vote in unison for the state operating budget, something extremists have objected to. Brooks reports that Republicans no long plan to enforce this rule, known as a “binding caucus,” but at least two members with more pragmatic leanings have previously said they won’t join a majority without such a rule in place.
The binding caucus is also the source of deep GOP divisions in the House, where 15 Democrats, four independents, and one Republican have said they plan to continue the bipartisan alliance that has governed the body for the last four years. That grouping, however, can claim just 20 seats—exactly as many as Republicans have, and one short of a majority in the 40-member body for both sides. Democrats would need at least one more Republican to join them, but if not, the chamber will remain deadlocked.
● Special Elections: We have our first two special elections of 2021, and they’re both in Democratic-held seats in Virginia:
HD-02: Democrat Candi King faces Republican Heather Mitchell in the contest to succeed Jennifer Carroll Foy, who resigned last month to focus on her bid for governor. This Northern Virginia seat used to be competitive, but Hillary Clinton took it 58-37 in 2016 and Foy defeated Mitchell 61-39 in 2019.
HD-90: Democrat Angelia Williams Graves is going up against Republican Sylvia Bryant in the race to succeed Joseph Lindsey, who resigned in November after he was appointed to a judgeship. Clinton won this Norfolk-area seat 64-31 in 2016.
Mayors
● New York City, NY Mayor: Former Rep. Max Rose announced Sunday that he wouldn’t enter this year’s Democratic primary for New York City mayor. However, another high-profile Democrat, 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang, did set up a campaign committee in late December, though he has not yet announced whether he’s in.
A number of other Democrats were already competing to succeed termed-out Mayor Bill de Blasio in the June instant-runoff primary, and the field grew by one late last month when former JPMorgan Chase managing director Art Chang joined the race.
Obituaries
● Deaths: Two former governors died in late December: Democrat William Winter, who led Mississippi from 1980 to 1984, and Republican Dick Thornburgh, who served as Pennsylvania’s chief executive from 1979 to 1987 and later as U.S. attorney general.
Winter, who successfully pushed forward a major overhaul to the state’s education system, went on to challenge Republican Sen. Thad Cochran in 1984, but the contest ended in a 61-39 defeat for the Democrat. Winter never sought office again but became known for his later civil rights work, which included founding the University of Mississippi’s Winter Institute for Racial Reconciliation. You can find more in Justin Vicory’s obituary for Winter in the Mississippi Clarion Ledger.
Thornburgh, meanwhile, was elected governor of Pennsylvania in 1978 after a competitive race, and he dealt with the Three Mile Island nuclear crisis during his first year in office. After a stint as attorney general under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Thornburgh competed in the 1991 special election for Senate, a contest where he very much looked like the frontrunner from the beginning. Things didn’t go as expected, though, and appointed Democratic incumbent Harris Wofford ended up defeating Thornburgh 55-45. You can learn more about Thornburgh’s long career in Gary Rotstein’s obituary for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: Just before Christmas, Donald Trump pardoned two former Republican congressmen who had each resigned shortly after accepting plea deals in 2019 for two unrelated corruption scandals: California’s Duncan Hunter and New York’s Chris Collins. These two disgraced politicians were also the first two members of Congress to endorse Trump’s presidential bid in 2016.
Collins had gone to prison in October for what was to be a 26-month sentence for his part in an insider-trading scheme. Hunter, who had pleaded guilty to a single charge of conspiracy to convert campaign funds to personal use, had been sentenced to 11 months in jail, but Trump pardoned him before he was to report to prison on Jan. 4.
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