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Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript beneath has been evenly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Last Wednesday, the U.S. Capitol was attacked by a mob of President Trump’s supporters, a lot of whom had very specific and never so specific ties to right-wing extremism within the U.S. There are studies now, too, that there could possibly be subsequent assaults in state capitals this weekend. President Trump’s time in workplace has undoubtedly had a mainstreaming impact on right-wing extremism, too, with as many as 20 % of Americans saying they supported the rioters. But as we additionally know, a lot of this predates Trump, too. Right-wing extremism has an extended, sordid historical past within the U.S.
The huge query I need to ask all of you in the present day is twofold: First, how did we get right here, and second, the place can we go from right here?
Let’s begin by unpacking how right-wing extremism has modified within the Trump presidency. How has it?
ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior author): Well, the primary and most blatant factor is that Trump has spoken on to right-wing extremists. That is to say, utilizing their language, condoning earlier armed protests at authorities buildings and explicitly calling on them to help and defend him. And that, most likely unsurprisingly, has emboldened right-wing extremists and made their extremism appear — properly, much less excessive.
That goes for a big selection of extremists within the U.S., too. I’m pondering, in fact, about Trump’s remark after the white supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, when he stated there have been “very fine people on both sides.” But Trump has additionally inspired white Christian nationalists, anti-government extremists and different teams and people that I actually by no means thought I’d hear a president expressing sympathy or help for.
jennifer.chudy (Jennifer Chudy, political science professor at Wellesley College): Absolutely, Amelia. And whereas the precise extremists might signify a small group of the general public, the share of Republicans who help their habits, whether or not explicitly or implicitly, will not be as small. This is, partially, as a consequence of mainstream political establishments — just like the Republican Party, with Trump at its helm — serving to make their mission and habits appear authentic.
maggie.koerth (Maggie Koerth, senior science author): I’ve been speaking to consultants about this all week, and I feel it’s actually attention-grabbing how even the lecturers who examine these things are type of arguing over the function class performs in it. People like Christian Davenport on the University of Michigan have argued that we should always perceive that every one of that is occurring within the context of many years of rising revenue inequality and political stagnation. In different phrases, he contends that there are authentic causes to be indignant at and distrust the federal government. But it additionally looks like this crowd was not even near being uniformly working class and possibly contained individuals from a variety of various backgrounds. And that’s why I favored one of many factors Joseph Uscinski on the University of Miami made: We could be seeing a coalescing of two teams: the individuals who have been really harm by that inequality and are indignant about it AND the people who find themselves doing fairly properly however who really feel like any individual may come and take that away. And, in fact, each these positions can dovetail very simply into racial animus and white supremacy.
ameliatd: That’s attention-grabbing, Maggie. As you alluded to, although, it’s vital to be clear that financial nervousness — which was used within the aftermath of Trump’s election to clarify why so many Americans voted for a candidate who framed a lot of his candidacy round animus towards nonwhite individuals — doesn’t imply that racism or white supremacy isn’t a driving power right here, too.
Part of what’s so complicated in regards to the mob that attacked the Capitol is that it was a bunch of various individuals, with considerably disparate ideologies and objectives, united beneath the “stop the steal” mantra. But underlying a whole lot of that, even individuals’s anger over financial inequality or distrust in establishments, is the basic concept that white standing and energy are being threatened.
jennifer.chudy: There can be simply a whole lot of proof in political science that racial attitudes are related to feelings like anger. Two nice books, one by Antoine Banks of the University of Maryland and the opposite by Davin Phoenix of the University of California, Irvine, take into account this level in depth. Insofar as right-wing extremists categorical anger on the system (in distinction to concern or disgust), their anger seems extra prone to be motivated by racial grievances than by financial ones.
Additionally, the Republican Party’s base has, for years now, turn into extra racially homogeneous, partially due to the get together offering a welcome residence to white grievances. But some have argued that this has additionally been exacerbated by the Democratic Party talking extra explicitly about racial inequality within the U.S., one thing that wasn’t the case within the Nineties. Regardless, a extra racially homogeneous base could make a celebration’s members extra receptive to one of these extremist habits.
We can also’t underestimate the function that COVID-19 performs right here. As Maggie and Amelia steered of their article from this summer time on militias and the coronavirus, many of us are at residence and glued to their computer systems in ways in which facilitate one of these organizing. They can burrow themselves into on-line communities of like-minded of us which can intensify their attitudes and result in excessive habits.
Kaleigh: (Kaleigh Rogers, tech and politics reporter): Polling has proven that concepts that beforehand had been thought-about excessive, like utilizing violence in case your get together loses an election, or supporting authoritarian concepts, have undoubtedly turn into extra mainstream.
This is partly as a consequence of Trump’s personal rhetoric, but additionally because of the results of on-line communities the place far-right extremists and white nationalists mingle with extra reasonable Trump supporters, successfully radicalizing a few of them over time.
What’s attention-grabbing to me about all of those totally different factions, although, is there’s really a whole lot of division amongst these teams: Many members of the Proud Boys aren’t followers of the QAnon conspiracy, as an illustration. And a whole lot of white nationalists don’t like Trump, however they nonetheless find yourself uniting towards a perceived frequent enemy. That’s why you noticed individuals within the mob on the Capitol waving MAGA flags alongside individuals with clear Nazi symbolism. They should not all white nationalists, however they’re keen to march beside them as a result of they suppose they’re on the identical aspect.
But within the aftermath of the Jan. 6 assault, these divisions have gotten extra stark in these on-line communities. I’m seeing a whole lot of infighting over whether or not deliberate marches are a good suggestion, whether or not they’re “false flag” occasions or traps or whether or not they need to be armed. There simply appears to be this heightened nervousness as they draw nearer to an inevitable line that they’ll’t come again from: Biden’s inauguration.
sarahf: That’s an excellent vital level, Kaleigh, on how totally different extremist teams have rallied behind this. But given how a lot Trump has straight spoken to right-wing extremists, as Amelia talked about up high, can we drill in on the violence, as properly? It’s not simply that totally different factions have united or that these views have mainstreamed beneath Trump, but additionally that there’s been an precise uptick in violence, too, proper?
ameliatd: One factor Maggie and I heard from consultants on the trendy militia motion is that these teams’ exercise ranges rely on the political context. The uptick in violence beneath Trump is actual, nevertheless it’s not one thing that’s solely occurred beneath Trump. There was a surge in militia exercise early in Obama’s presidency, too, for instance.
maggie.koerth: Very a lot so, Amelia. The actuality is that the right-wing extremism we’re seeing now’s a symptom of long-running tendencies in American society, together with white resentment and racial animus. And on high of that, you’ve got these tendencies interacting with partisan polarization, which implies the political left and proper (which used to have pretty comparable ranges of white racial resentment) started to diverge on measures of racial resentment within the late Eighties and now differ vastly.
Kaleigh: Exactly, Maggie. That’s additionally why the FBI and different consultants are significantly involved about deliberate militia marches forward of the inauguration. These teams are typically way more organized and deliberate of their actions than the mob we noticed final week. And due to that, they’re much more harmful.
ameliatd: Right, so this violence isn’t new. But I do suppose it’s honest to say that Trump has raised the stakes so dramatically for right-wing extremists that we’d see a throng of them storming the Capitol. Quite a lot of them see him as their man within the White House!
So when he says, look, this election is being stolen from me, and also you’ve obtained to do one thing about it, they pay attention.
jennifer.chudy: That’s true, Amelia, however work in political science reveals simply how a lot of this transformation was afoot previous to Trump’s election. Some tie it to Hillary Clinton speaking an excessive amount of about race in the course of the 2016 election — they argue that this drove away some white voters who had beforehand voted Democratic (and will achieve this in 2008 and ‘12 because Obama, despite being Black, did not mention race much during his candidacy). But Clare Malone’s article for FiveThirtyEight on how Republicans have spent many years prioritizing white individuals’s pursuits does an excellent job of tracing these roots even additional again.
maggie.koerth: Yeah, I’m actually leery of the tendency I’ve seen within the media to behave like that is one thing that began with Trump, and even that began post-Obama. Most of the consultants I’ve spoken with have framed this extra like … Trump’s escalation of those harmful tendencies is a symptom of the tendencies. We’re speaking about a whole lot of indicators which have been going on this route since at the very least the Eighties.
jennifer.chudy: True, Maggie, from the start of the Republic, I would argue! But one purpose the tie to Trump and Obama is so attention-grabbing is that Trump’s baseless claims round Obama’s delivery certificates correspond along with his debut on the nationwide political stage. So whilst there’s a lengthy thread of white supremacy all through American historical past that has facilitated Trump’s ascension, there may be a extra proximate connection to latest elections, too.
ameliatd: Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke University, has finished some actually compelling analysis on white id politics — particularly how the nation’s diversification has created a type of “white awareness” amongst white Americans who’re primarily afraid of dropping their cultural standing and energy.
This is a sophisticated power — she’s clear that it’s not precisely the identical factor as racial prejudice — however the result’s that many white individuals have a way that the hierarchy during which they’ve been privileged is being upset, they usually need issues to return to the outdated establishment, which in fact was racist. And the Republican Party has been tapping into that sense of concern for some time. Trump’s departure was that he began doing it way more explicitly than earlier Republican politicians had largely finished.
So sure, Maggie, you’re completely proper that it’s not like Trump got here on the scene and out of the blue right-wing extremism or white supremacist violence turned part of our mjui78 political panorama. Or partisan hatred, for that matter! FiveThirtyEight contributor Lee Drutman has written in regards to the impact of political polarization and the way it’s created intense loathing of the opposite get together, and he’s clear that it’s been a very long time coming. It didn’t simply emerge out of nowhere in 2016, as you may see within the chart beneath.
On the opposite hand, although, it’s laborious to think about the occasions of final week with out 4 years of Trump fanning the flames.
maggie.koerth: Right, Amelia. Trump is a symptom AND he’s making it worse. At the identical time.
Kaleigh: What you stated, Amelia, additionally speaks to only what number of Trump supporters don’t take into account themselves racist and discover it insulting to be known as so. Quite a lot of Trump supporters suppose Democrats are obsessive about race and id politics, and suppose racism isn’t as systemic of an issue as it’s. There are additionally, in fact, nonwhite Trump supporters, which complicates the picture that solely white working-class Americans really feel threatened by efforts to create racial equality.
ameliatd: That’s proper, Kaleigh. We haven’t talked in regards to the protests towards police brutality and misconduct this summer time, however I feel that’s a giant issue right here as properly — politicians like Biden saying that we’ve got to cope with systemic racism is itself threatening to lots of people.
sarahf: It does appear as if we’re on this grey zone, the place a lot of this predates Trump, and but Trump has activated underlying sentiments that had been maybe dormant for at the very least a short time. Any little one of the Nineties remembers, as an illustration, the Oklahoma City bombing and Timothy McVeigh, who held a lot of excessive, anti-government views, or the lethal standoff between federal regulation enforcement officers and right-wing fundamentalists at Ruby Ridge.
And as Jennifer identified with Malone’s piece, the thread runs even additional again. It’s virtually as if it’s all the time been a part of the U.S. however possibly not as omnipresent. That’s additionally probably naive, however I’m curious to listen to the place you all suppose we go from right here — in how does President Biden begin to transfer the U.S. ahead?
maggie.koerth: Honestly, that’s the scary half for me, Sarah. Because I don’t actually suppose he can. Everything we find out about how you alter deeply held beliefs that should do with id means that the appeals of outsiders doesn’t work.
jennifer.chudy: Yes — one would suppose {that a} frequent formidable problem, like COVID-19, would assist unite totally different political factions. But when you take a look at the previous couple of months, that’s not what we see.
maggie.koerth: Even Republican elites who they push again on these things get branded as apostates.
ameliatd: And there’s proof that when Republican elites are perceived as apostates, they might additionally turn into targets for violence.
Kaleigh: But we additionally know that deplatforming agitators helps cut back the unfold of their concepts and the way a lot individuals are uncovered to/speak about them. Losing the presidency is type of the final word deplatforming, no?
jennifer.chudy: Is it deplatforming, although? Or is it simply shifting the platform to a unique setting? I don’t know the ins and outs of the know-how, nevertheless it looks like the message has turn into dispersed however possibly not extinguished.
sarahf: That’s a very good level, Jennifer, and one thing I feel Kaleigh hits on in her article — that’s, this query of … was it too little, too late?
maggie.koerth: I feel it has been a deplatforming, Jennifer. If for no different purpose than it’s eliminated Trump’s means to viscerally reply to tens of millions of individuals instantly. And you see some actually huge variations between the issues he stated on Twitter about these extremists final week and the statements he’s made this week, which have needed to undergo different individuals.
It’s not a lot taken away from his means to talk, nevertheless it does appear to have affected his means to talk with out any individual fascinated by the results first.
ameliatd: There is an argument that Trump’s presidency and the violence he’s spurred is making the underlying issues unattainable to disregard. I’m undecided whether or not that makes it simpler for Biden to cope with them, nevertheless it does make it tougher for him to only say, ‘Okay, let’s transfer previous this.’
Lilliana Mason, a professor on the University of Maryland who’s written extensively about partisan discord and political violence, advised me in a latest interview that whereas somebody like Biden shouldn’t be afraid to push again towards Trump or his followers as a result of it’s going to result in extra violence (an argument towards impeachment that’s circulated prior to now week), she does suppose pushing again towards Trump and his followers most likely will end in extra violence.
So that leaves us, and Biden, in a fairly scary place.
Republicans are in a bind, too. Electorally, a lot of them rely on a system the place sure voters — white voters, rural voters, and so on. — do have extra energy. So yeah, Sarah, that doesn’t make me particularly optimistic a few huge Republican elite turnaround on Trumpism, separate from the query of whether or not that will really diffuse a few of these tensions.
sarahf: One silver lining in all that is we don’t but know the complete extent to which Trump and Trumpism has taken successful. That is, loads of Republicans nonetheless help him, however his approval score has taken a reasonably large hit, the largest since his first few months in workplace in 2017 — that’s atypical for a president on his means out the door. More Republicans additionally help impeachment of Trump this time round.
There is a radicalized aspect right here in American politics — and as you’ve all stated — it isn’t going anyplace anytime quickly, however I do marvel if we nonetheless don’t absolutely perceive the place this goes subsequent.
Kaleigh: What offers me some peace on this time is trying again at historical past. America has handled far-right extremists earlier than. It has handled violent insurrectionists earlier than. We have continued, nonetheless slowly, to make progress. Sometimes the one means out is thru.
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