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“The big question is going to be will we see the upsurge in cases two weeks from now when schools are back in full flow as we saw in the September period,” he said. “My projection is we will see another week and a half of downward trend before it comes up again.”
For Quebec to be able to stop a renewed rise, it will have to change its school model by giving the option of online classes, so that at least the number of children in school would be fewer, and have all children wear masks at all times, Bacon said. At the same time, people need to think more about the risks they’re taking, such as visiting grandma, if they have kids in school.
“One thing we’ve learned from multiple, different studies is when you have large numbers of people in a contained space, with poor ventilation, you get the most amount of transmission. So that’s a problem,” Bacon said, and one that explains why schools, along with manufacturing plants, are among the biggest drivers of the disease. Kids get sick in school, often without even knowing it, and infect family members who spread it in the community. While measures in place have stopped mass transmission, they have not stopped the spread, he said.
“It’s a hypothesis based on what we’ve seen in September. I think we will see an increase,” Bacon said. “I wish I was more optimistic.”
rbruemmer@postmedia.com
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