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Despite the strong rebound, economy will take two years to surpass pre-pandemic levels.
ECONOMY IN FY24
FOOD SUBSIDY BECOMING UNMANAGEABLE
- Price of food issued from central stock not revised since 2013
- Economic cost of wheat up from Rs 1,908/quintal in FY14 to Rs 2,684/quintal in FY21
- Rice up from Rs 2,616/quintal in 2013-14 to Rs 3,724/quintal over this period
- Survey suggests: Revision in issue price
A CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, FINALLY
- India likely to have a current account surplus in FY21, after a gap of 17 years
- Resilient software service exports and lower imports contribute
- Surplus seen at 2% of GDP
- Forex reserves now cover 18 months of imports
VACCINE SUPPORT
- Growth can exceed estimate as rollout of Covid-19 vaccines gathers traction
- Discretionary consumption can rise as vaccine is rolled out
- Pent-up demand for services will be unleased as vaccine gives comfort
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