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So Senate Democrats, and the White House, seem to be backing off. House progressive Democrats are pushing back with the White House, however. Nearly two dozen of them signed on to a letter Monday to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris urging them to keep up the fight for $15. “Eighty-one million people cast their ballots to elect you on a platform that called for a $15 minimum wage,” they wrote. “We urge you to keep that promise and call on the Presiding Officer of the Senate [Harris] to refute the Senate Parliamentarian’s advice on a Byrd Rule point of order and maintain the $15 minimum wage provision in the American Rescue Plan.”
That push became more urgent as Senate Democrats have abandoned their back-up plan to tax big corporations that don’t pay workers $15/hour. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden, chairs of the Budget and Finance Committees respectively, had been working on that alternative solution but now have dropped it according to various sources, as a result of “numerous practical and political challenges.” The practical include the amount of time it would take to write and vet the provision, clearing it through the Parliamentarian, when the bill needs to be passed as quickly as possible.
The enhanced and expanded unemployment insurance extensions passed late last year expire on March 14, and states need as much lead time as possible to gear up their creaky unemployment systems to make sure that there isn’t a disruption in payments for workers. The alternative is seen as too easy for employers to evade, for example by reclassifying low-wage workers as contractors. The leadership apparently believes that setting up a bullet-proof, or accountant-proof, way to make corporate American pay a living wage through taxes isn’t possible in the time allowed.
There are two tracks to take now, to get the long overdue minimum wage increase and both involve Democrats forcing their “moderates,” Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, to get in line. That’s by overruling the parliamentarian now and keep the House’s minimum wage increase or abolishing the filibuster on legislation in an upcoming bill. Republicans will not allow it to happen any other way.
Apart from the minimum wage dust-up, there are a few other concerns including whether the boost to the child tax credit will survive the parliamentarian. The language in that provision might have to be rewritten to keep it. The other element to watch for is what happens in the Senate on unemployment insurance (UI). The bill passed by the House extends UI benefits just through August, setting up UI to lapse before other relief provisions expire on September 30. That sets up yet another benefit cliff that Congress will have to deal with, and at the worst time—when members want to be out of town on August recess. Wyden has argued that the benefits need to extend along with the rest of the provisions in the bill through September. That’s as critical as any part of the bill and in question, as the entire Democratic caucus is going to have to hold together to block amendments to decrease either the amount of the benefits—now with a $400/week boost in the House bill—or to vote to extend the benefits through September. That will take 51 votes.
Meanwhile, Republicans know they have a losing hand but nonetheless are unified in opposition to the will of the American voting population and the Democrats. Not a single Republican voted with Democrats to pass the bill in the House. In fact, they drug out the process and engineered the vote to happen in the very early hours Saturday so they could use their old “passed in secrecy in the middle of the night” trope against it. Because that’s all they got. On the Senate side, McConnell retains a tight grip on his members, arguing that the bill is just too big while refusing to work constructively with Democrats to come to agreement on anything. As usual.
It IS a big bill, because it has to be. It includes the $1,400 survival checks to people making up to $75,000/annually, and includes that same amount for dependents—children and adult. It has $50 billion for vaccine distribution, and ongoing testing and tracing to try to control the virus. It includes $350 billion for state, local, and tribal governments to help cover their budget shortfalls resulting from a year of pandemic. There’s $200 billion for that all important school reopening, getting schools prepared to have students return safely. There’s $58 billion to boost pension funds that have taken major hits in the past year; $25 billion for restaurants and bars; $30 billion in housing assistance; and the hike in the child tax credit to $3,600 annually for children under six, and $3,000 for children 6-17, paid out monthly instead of as a tax credit at the end of the year. The bill as it stands could cut child poverty in half, just this year. That’s worth fighting for.
It’s certainly popular, too. We saw polling last week that pegged 60% of Republican voters supporting the bill, with overall support among voters at 76%. It’s not just a hugely popular bill, it’s an essential one. The need is why people want it so badly, and why Democrats need to get the maximum out of it that they can. Now.
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