Analysis: Quebec now hit with ‘a wave of variants,’ INSPQ warns

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Quebec has been hit with a “wave of variants” that will only intensify if the government doesn’t impose additional restrictions in the pandemic, a top epidemiologist at the province’s public health institute warned on Friday.

Gaston De Serres said the current measures “are not sufficient to control transmission of the variants,” which are already predominant in some regions of Quebec.

“What we can say is there is a wave of variants that is moving and that has already been increasing for several weeks. In the past two days, we have seen a marked increase in cases. I don’t know at what stage we will start talking about a third wave, but we certainly have a wave of variants … that will lead us to have more cases in the short term.”

The reproductive rate of the COVID-19 variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising. At present, 85 per cent of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.

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“The current upward trend that we see in variants will continue unless something additional is done,” De Serres explained during a technical briefing by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ).

“So it could be either at the population level people will apply very rigorously the precautions that are recommended, or there is also the possibility that the government will impose other measures and limit the opportunities for people to get infected. So clearly, unless there is a change at one or the other levels, the current trend will continue.”

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Although the number of cases dipped in Montreal Friday, they rebounded in six other regions, including Capitale-Nationale, the Mauricie, Outaouais, Chaudière-Appalaches, Lanaudière and the Laurentians. The Bas-Saint-Laurent, where a 2-year-old was reportedly hospitalized for COVID-19 this week, has also observed an increase in cases since Monday.

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In addition, the total number of COVID-19 outbreaks in Quebec jumped by 37 to 612. Clusters climbed the most in the workplace, up by 19 to 287; and in schools, up by a dozen to 140.

What’s more, 10 schools across the province closed temporarily since Thursday due to COVID-19 exposure and most likely the variants, raising the tally to 37, according to the Education Ministry. The number of shuttered classrooms soared by 293 to 1,178.

Against this backdrop of unsettling trends, the province set a record in vaccinations on Thursday: 54,951. To date, 13.2 per cent of Quebec’s population has been partially vaccinated. The rate is noticeably higher in Montreal, 18.42 per cent, after 16,273 shots were administered Thursday.

Quebec expects to receive shipments of 700,000 doses next week, but the supply of vaccines might drop soon as the European Union moves to postpone exports.

So far, the COVID-19 resurgence has not translated into more hospitalizations. In fact, hospitalizations have remained under 500 for the past two days. But Health Minister Christian Dubé expressed his concern again about the potential impact on hospitalizations, recalling that rising cases led to a surge in hospital admissions in January.

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