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Younger people making up increasing proportions of hospitalizations and deaths in B.C. as older people get vaccinated
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More people under the age of 40 are ending up in hospitals, in intensive care and have died from COVID-19 in the past five months, since the advent of the second wave in the fall, than during the pandemic’s first 10 months, data from the B.C. Centre for Disease Control shows.
Experts say that’s, in part, because there are more younger people becoming infected than in the past.
But it is also a result of mutations of the coronavirus, called variants of concern, spreading in British Columbia and replacing the existing virus, say experts.
Of particular concern is the variant first identified in the U.K., B.1.1.1.7, which spreads more rapidly than the first form of the virus and can cause more serious outcomes, including increased deaths, according to research.
In the past week, there have been an additional 712 cases of variant strains reported, at the same time as B.C. case counts climbed to nearly 4,900 in the past week, a level not seen since the peak last fall.
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Today, the variants of concern account for as much as 20 per cent of new cases, of which 90 per cent are the variant identified in the U.K., according to information from provincial health officials.
“As B.1.1.7 increases and spreads, it is more virulent. So it increases death rates, as well as hospitalization and ICU rates,” says University of B.C. epidemiologist Sarah Otto.
Computer modelling by Otto attempts to take into account the roll-out of vaccinations in B.C., and also the increase in variants. It predicts that by about the second week of April, the province should hit its highest rate of hospitalization and intensive care treatment so far in this pandemic.
Because older people have been vaccinated first, it means those who will be infected are likely to be younger, noted Otto.
“We’re going to need to have increased control measures in order to prevent the hospitals and ICUs from becoming overburdened,” said Otto, a UBC zoologist who specializes in mathematical modelling.
Dr. Michael Curry, an emergency doctor and a clinical associate professor at UBC, noted that even though younger people are less likely to die from COVID-19, with greater numbers of younger people getting infected, it can still happen in rare cases.
“Youth does not offer complete protection from COVID-19,” said Curry. “I have hospitalized two seriously ill patients in the last couple of weeks with COVID-19 and both were in their 30s.”
Tom Koch, a UBC adjunct professor, added that part of the dynamic related to more younger people being infected is the tendency for them not to take the threat of infection as seriously, as they visit with friends and attend larger gatherings.
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“And younger folk may be more likely to live in denser living arrangements with inadequate ventilation, and thus there’s more likelihood of transfer,” said Koch, who has expertise in factors that promote or inhibit the spread of disease.
B.C. Centre for Disease Control situation reports that provide breakdowns by age groups for hospitalizations, ICU stays and deaths were examined by Postmedia.
They show that the first death in the 30 to 39 age group took place in mid-November. As of March 13, the latest date for which there is data, there had been 11 deaths in the 30-to-39 age group. There have been no deaths among people under 30.
The data shows that for those 39 and under, hospitalizations as of March 13 were 727, up from 143 on Nov. 1.
There were significant increases in hospitalizations and ICU stays across all the younger age categories. The biggest jump in hospitalizations took place in the 20-to-29 age group, an increase of nearly six times, to 223, from Nov. 1 to March 13.
The largest jump in ICU stays took place in the 30-to-39 age group, by more than four times to 78, from Nov. 1 to March 13.
On Thursday, B.C. provincial health officials acknowledged the increase in younger people being infected.
However, Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s health officer, presented data that showed hospitalization rates staying steady as a percentage of those testing positive for the virus under 60 years of age.
Henry noted that of the 1,592 people under 60 hospitalized, 19 per cent were admitted to critical care.
Of those known to be infected with a variant of concern, just 53 people, 30 per cent of those went to critical care.
“That’s a signal that we’re watching closely,” said Henry. “So far, the numbers are very small so it’s not necessarily something that is a worry, but it is something we’ll be watching and investigating further.”
ghoekstra@postmedia.com
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