Jarvis: This could actually work

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Ontario’s third bid to reopen the province could actually work.

The latest tack announced by Premier Doug Ford on Thursday is both promising and reassuring.

It’s a three-step plan phased in over three months.

It’s based on clear and comprehensive metrics: the number of people who have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, the number who are fully vaccinated and key public health indicators including the number of new cases, hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions.

Ontario will remain in each stage for at least 21 days. The government will assess the impact and determine whether the goals for the next step have been met.

It will start with the least risky activities, outdoor activities where transmission is low, like small gatherings, patio dining and attractions like pools, zoos and campgrounds. Non-essential retail stores will open with only 15 percent capacity.

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In a welcome prelude, outdoor basketball and tennis courts, golf courses, skate parks, baseball diamonds and other recreation amenities, some of which shouldn’t have been closed, some of which the province’s science table recommended opening for physical and mental health, will finally open Saturday, in time for the long weekend.

The rest of the reopening is expected to begin the week of June 14, if the first set of metrics is met. That’s notable because here’s what the science table recommended: “Maintaining progress on vaccinations and maintaining some public health measures until mid-June can help ensure a good summer.”

Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, has said new cases must drop to “well below” 1,000 per day. The science table modelling shows cases dropping to about 400 per day by mid-June.

So the government listened.

Sixty per cent of adults in the province must have their first dose of vaccine before the reopening starts. More than 60 per cent have received their first dose in Windsor and Essex County. Should we reopen earlier? No. We don’t want people in regions that are closed to go to regions that are open to get their hair cut, shop and spread disease.

Plus we’re still getting 30 to 40 new cases a day here. The number jumped to 70 Wednesday. Two more deaths, a woman in her 50s and a man in his 60s, were reported Friday. At least half of new cases, 70 to 80 per cent the last several days, are more aggressive virus variants. The two people who died were victims of variants. Thirty to 40 per cent of cases have no known source, which means the virus is spreading in the community. The reproduction rate is fluctuating around one, which means we’re balancing on the brink of exponential growth.

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So with the extra time, “we can take that opportunity with all these extended measures to bring those case counts really down and continue to vaccinate,” local medical officer of health Dr. Wajid Ahmed said Friday.

So finally, there is a properly cautious approach based on data, designed to not only reopen but stay open.

It’s like the fresh air blowing through my home office. It’s like this government has been chastened by the brutal third wave that could have been prevented and by the public enraged at the inability or unwillingness to deal with this pandemic effectively. Have our leaders finally learned to respect this ruthless, wily and unrelenting virus and the doctors and scientists who are dealing with it? They at least seem to recognize how precarious things looked a few weeks ago.

But never forget the terrible price we paid to reach this understanding.

While most of what the plan says is right, there’s also what it doesn’t say. It never mentions schools. That’s unacceptable. Children as young as 12 will be eligible for a vaccine May 31.

“We would really try to use that opportunity to give kids the vaccination before they go back to even a week or two back in in-person classes,” Ahmed said.

Ford says he needs consensus on reopening schools. Williams supports reopening schools. The science table predicts reopening schools would cause six percent to 11 per cent more cases but concluded “this may be manageable.” And the Canadian Paediatric Society called for schools to reopen and for in-person summer school.

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“The impact of school closures and the resulting social isolation on the health and well-being of children and youth has become impossible to ignore,” the society wrote in an open letter Thursday. It cited “a crisis in children’s mental health,” saying “schools play an essential role in the recovery process.” That’s where kids get routine, accountability, socialization. For some, it’s where abuse and neglect are caught and stopped.

“The benefits of a few weeks in classroom cannot be overstated.”

They’re powerful words, and they were endorsed by 11 other organizations and institutions that care for children, top hospitals like SickKids.

There is consensus. The experts have always said schools should be the last to close, the first to open.

ajarvis@postmedia.com