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Joe Biden announced on 15 April 2021 that US troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan starting May 1 to end America’s longest war. Foreign troops under NATO command will also withdraw in coordination with the US. pull-out, to be completed by Sept 11.
The war on terrorism started by US in Afghanistan is far from over as US forces depart without a decisive or definite victory. A triumphal Taliban is poised to return to power on the battlefield or through peace talks where they hold most of the cards; much-vaunted “gains” slipping away by the day in a wave of targeted killings of the educated, active, and ambitious lifeblood of an emerging society. Many Afghans now fear a terrible tumbling towards civil war in a conflict already described as one of the most violent in the world.
Impact of the war on Pakistan
Quite obviously, such a development is destined to have a major impact not only on Afghanistan but also on its immediate neighborhood especially Pakistan. Turmoil in Afghanistan akin to a civil war would entail mass influx of refugees from Afghanistan towards Khyber Pakhunkhwa & Balochistan in Pakistan via porous borders. The people on both sides of the border especially Pashtuns are ethnically similar & conjoined culturally and ancestrally and hence bound to seek shelter from their brethren which is undeniable even by law enforcing agencies due to existing social norms. This means not only an increase in the number of mouths to feed in the already economically fraught tribal areas but also increased sectarian violence, drug trafficking, terrorism and organised crime as has been the trend since 1980.
Unrest in Afghanistan and Taliban’s resurgence will also provide strength to the smoldering outfits like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). TTP has recently amplified the tempo of its activities in the Pak Western border garnering support and bases from Afghan-Taliban. It’s noteworthy to mention here that TTP not only enjoys the patronage of Taliban but also of certain segments within the Pak Army as disclosed by their spokesperson in a radio interview.
The increasing nuisance of insurgents like TTP and Pashtun/Baloch rebels on the Western border coupled with a potent hostile neighbor like India in the East has progressively become untenable and difficult to bite by the Pakistan Armed Forces. This is also speculated to be one of the precipitating factors behind recent peace initiatives with India.
Pakistan politics over Taliban
On 10 May, Pakistan Army chief General Bajwa was accompanied on a day-long official visit to Kabul by Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt Gen Faiz Hameed where they met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and offered Pakistan’s support for the Afghanistan peace process amid growing violence as the US withdraws its troops.
During the visit Gen Bajwa also met the Head of British Armed Forces, General Sir Nick Carter who reportedly coerced Pakistan to insist on Taliban to take part in the elections or be part of a power sharing agreement with President Ghani. Following the meeting, Pakistan Army issued a statement: “We will always support an ‘Afghan led-Afghan owned’ peace process based on mutual consensus of all stakeholders”, indicating the agenda of the meeting & pressure to include Taliban in Afghan governance.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in an interview with German news website, Der Spiegel said, “It is first and foremost a matter of getting Pakistan on board. The US now plays only a minor role. The question of peace or hostility is now in Pakistani hands”; thus, putting the monkey on Pakistan’s shoulder. The Afghan President further added that Gen Bajwa has clearly indicated that restoration of the Emirate or dictatorship by the Taliban is not in anybody’s interest in the region, especially Pakistan. Since Pakstan never came out to deny this statement, it is fair to assume that Pakistan does not want a Taliban led govt in Afghanistan. However, such an action would tantamount to alienating or dumping Taliban that might not go down in Pakistan’s favour.
Dilema over airbases
US on the other hand has been pressurizing Pakistan to provide air bases in Pakistan, to undertake air operations in support of Afghan Government & against Taliban or other terrorists groups like ISIS. Pakistan has been resisting any such demands and Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi in a statement on 11 May reiterated, “We do not intend to allow boots on the ground and no (US) bases are being transferred to Pakistan”.
However, this also brings Pakistan into a ‘catch 22’ situation. Pakistan Govt cannot agree to such requests as it is bound to cause tremendous domestic upheaval with the opposition political parties accusing Imran Khan for ‘selling off’ Pakistan territory to the US. At the same time outright refusal also might not be an easy option in view of the abysmal state of Pakistan’s economy & its heavy reliance on foreign debts from organisations like IMF & World Bank that are under direct influence of the US.
Turbulence at home
Pakistan is yet to recover from the burns of the recent civil war like situation created during nationwide protests fueled by far-right radical Islamist outfit Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). With Taliban growing in strength in Afghanistan, a spurt in radical sentiments is bound to happen within Pakistan too. Although TLP fans out of Barelvi Sect compared to Deobandi as in case of Taliban, both draw a certain semblance in their radical extremism. As such, future adventures by TLP with an aim to seize political gains cannot be entirely ruled out.
The bottom line is that Pakistan needs to play its cards cautiously & wisely.
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