Red list update – which countries will be added in review?

The government is soon to reveal its first review of the travel traffic light system.

Holidays abroad were given the go-ahead in Britain on 17 May, when the Department for Transport (DfT) first unveiled which countries would be on its green, amber and red lists.

Destinations were designated a colour depending on the associated Covid-19 risk, and assigned rules for inbound travellers to match.

Green list countries, of which there were only 12, came with the lightest requirements, while red list countries, totalling 43, were assigned the harshest restrictions.

So which countries are at risk of turning red at the next update? Here’s what we know so far.

Which countries are currently red?

There are currently 43 countries on the red list. It existed prior to 17 May, with hotel quarantine first coming into effect on 15 February.

The list was originally 30 countries long. Additional countries have since been added; India joined the red list on 23 April, over concerns of its new variant, while the most recent additions were the Maldives, Turkey and Nepal on 7 May.

Here’s the current red list in full:

When is the next update to the red list?

The lists will be reviewed every three weeks – the first update is expected to take place on 3 June. Any changes would then come into effect a week after the review, on 10 June.

Any amends to the lists will be informed by public health advice, including the Joint Biosecurity Centre’s assessment of the latest data.

“These regular review points will allow the government to balance helping the public to understand Covid requirements when travelling to England while allowing us to constantly evaluate the risk for different countries,” according to the DfT.

Which countries could be added to the red list?

The former director of strategy at BA’s parent company International Airlines Group (IAG) and founder of GridPoint Consulting Limited, Robert Boyle, recently assessed the available case rate and testing data to predict which countries might move lists.

Purely based on infection rates, the countries with the highest reported case rates – based on a seven-day average reported cases per million – that are currently classified as amber are Bahrain, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago and Kuwait.

“Expect those to be added shortly” to the red list, wrote Mr Boyle.

All four destinations are in the top 15 countries for highest case rates, according to Our World in Data. Every other one of the top 15 is already classified as red. In fact, Bahrain currently has the second highest number of new infections, only beaten by the Maldives.

“My guess is that the politicians are carefully trying to craft the next set of announcements to throw a bone to the travel industry whilst also playing to the ‘securing our borders’ gallery.”

What criteria are used to decide which places should be red?

According to the second Global Travel Taskforce report, published on 9 April, the key factors in assessing a country’s risk factor are its rate of infection, the prevalence of variants of concern and the progress of its vaccination programme. The reliability of a country’s data and whether it’s performing enough community testing will also play a determining factor.

International travel hubs, such as the UAE, are also deemed to be high risk due to the number of passengers catching connecting flights from all over the world, and the difficulty in separating out travellers who have originated from other red list nations.

What are the restrictions for red list travellers?

According to transport secretary Grant Shapps, red list countries are “those which should not be visited except in the most extreme of circumstances”, and travellers arriving into the UK from these places face the harshest restrictions.

Before departing for the UK, all passengers must present a negative Covid test (which can be rapid antigen or lateral flow, as well as PCR).

They must also fill in a passenger locator form, plus pre-book and pay for a hotel quarantine package before arriving in the UK. This costs £1,750 for a solo traveller, and includes a private transfer from the airport to a designated quarantine hotel, 11 nights’ stay, all meals and two PCR tests to be taken on day two and day eight of self-isolation.