Eric Zemmour, the French TV star who is stealing Marine Le Pen’s thunder

PARIS — He is the man Marine Le Pen says makes her look reasonable.

Not a week goes by without Eric Zemmour kicking off a controversy about immigration, sexism, Islam or gender issues.

Now the question obsessing Parisian circles is this: Will he use his notoriety as a springboard to the Elysée?

Zemmour, a journalist-turned-celebrity pundit, has been convicted several times for inciting hate speech and is seen by many as responsible for sexist and racist rhetoric leaking into the mainstream. And yet even his political opponents admit his meteoric rise on French television shows that he is tapping into the declinist zeitgeist in France.

His diatribes are deemed so inflammatory that his daily shows are now pre-recorded and checked before going to air. This week, for instance, Zemmour compared puberty-blocking treatments prescribed for trans children to Nazi medical experiments. Allegations of sexual misconduct against him have further heightened an already polarized debate about his influence.

The threat of a Zemmour presidential bid is taken so seriously that Le Pen has called on her own father, Jean-Marie, whom she excluded from the party, for help in fighting him.

In conversation, Le Pen has said that “he could stop the National Rally from being in the second round,” referring to France’s presidential election system in which the two highest-scoring candidates in a first vote face off in a run-off.

Le Pen is ramping up her third bid for the presidency, with polls putting her neck and neck with Emmanuel Macron. But her decision to abandon some of the far right’s more radical positions may make her vulnerable to a candidate trying to outflank her on the right.

If Zemmour ran against Le Pen, he could split the far-right vote.

France’s Tucker Carlson

At first glance, Zemmour, a slight, wiry author of several books on French politics and history, seems an unlikely torchbearer for the far right.

But for years now he has been a leading light of the French new reactionaries movement, writers who challenge what they say is the dominance of the left in France.

Zemmour’s many books make the case that France has been in decline since 1968, giving in to the forces of laissez-faire progressives, unchecked immigration and Islam.

Zemmour, who is Jewish and of Algerian descent, has popularized the concept of “the grand replacement,” a conspiracy theory whereby Europeans are gradually being “replaced” by immigrants, which is popular in white supremacist circles. And he shares with culture warrior Jordan Peterson the idea that western societies are suffering from a crisis of masculinity.

Many accuse Zemmour and the like of providing the xenophobic far right with a philosophical backbone. His books meanwhile have been bestsellers. His 2014 “The French Suicide,” a polemic with apocalyptic overtones on national decline, sold over 400,000 copies.

It was breaking into television that made Zemmour the political Marmite of the French establishment, fiercely hated and loved. His show Face à l’Info has given a second life to 24-hour news channel CNews, which is emerging as a platform for right-wing ideas in the vein of Fox News.

Zemmour’s strength is that he is a thinker who can riff on De Gaulle, the French Revolution and Charles Martel, but also deliver pithy one-liners that will go viral on Twitter. His evening slot has seen its audience multiply by 10 since 2019, to more than 900,000 viewers today.

“All the news channels were an open tap of warm-water politics,” said Robert Ménard, far-right mayor of Béziers, in southern France. “CNews ditched the politically correct and decided to service viewers who had nowhere to air their views. Eric Zemmour is their spokesperson.”

Now the voices calling on him to transform that following into a political force are growing stronger. Zemmour did not respond to a POLITICO request for comment.

A Zemmour campaign under wraps

Those working behind the scenes on his hypothetical campaign say Zemmour has not made up his mind.

“He’s not a candidate right now,” said Jacques Bompard, mayor of Orange, who is backing a “friends of Eric Zemmour” list of candidates running for the regional elections in June. “We are pushing him, it is not him who is pushing us.”

But there are signs campaign preparations are underway.

“We have the structure ready,” said an official working on the “I’m signing for Zemmour” movement. “But we are keeping a window open [to unplug a campaign] just in case.” The results of the regional elections in June are key, he said. If the far-right National Rally underperforms, it could propel Zemmour centerstage.  

The target electorate are his viewers, a 50-plus, wealthy generation, but also “the self-employed and small business owners,” said the official.

Over the past couple of months, supporters have created groups on Telegram, Twitter and other channels, calling for him to run in 2022. Zemmour has also been searching for a presidential campaign director, as reported by Playbook Paris. Former right-wing campaign director Patrick Stefanini, who advised ex-Prime Minister François Fillon on his failed 2017 presidential bid, was approached by Zemmour to work for him.

“He presented his project to me and I listened with interest,” said Stefanini. “He has an incredible talent and his project is interesting but can his talent with words become a political force? Can he gather a real team behind him?”

Outflanking Le Pen

In Marine Le Pen’s camp, the impact of a Zemmour presidential bid is taken seriously.

“He makes me look reasonable,” Le Pen has said of her potential rival during a private conversation. “He is into the clash of civilizations, while I say yes, Islam is compatible with the Republic.”

“He moves me towards the center-right,” she said.

Le Pen’s strategy to normalize the National Rally, by changing its name, excluding her father and abandoning policies such as exiting the European Union or the euro appears to be widening her appeal.

But her strategy may be opening up a space for a candidate to her right.

“She is no longer breaking with the system,” said Jean-Marie Le Pen adviser Lorrain de Saint Affrique. “How will she keep her promises? She is putting herself in a situation where she is promising things that she won’t be able to deliver [if she is elected president].”

Swallowing her pride, Marine Le Pen sought help from her father in fighting Zemmour earlier this month, despite having excluded him from the party, according to several party officials who confirmed a report from magazine Le Point.

High stakes venture

It’s a risky decision for Zemmour, who stands to lose his income as a journalist at CNews and the conservative daily Le Figaro if he embarks on a perilous electoral adventure. One poll by Ifop said 13 percent of the French would be prepared to vote for Zemmour, but only 4 percent would definitely vote for him.

And then there is his relationship with women.

Allegations of sexual misconduct have surfaced over the past couple of months. In April, a Socialist local official posted a testimony online accusing Zemmour of forcing her to kiss him, when she was a young campaigner in 2006. The investigative website Mediapart has since published several testimonies of women complaining of forced kisses and inappropriate gestures.

No legal complaints have yet been lodged against Zemmour.

“I think the cases are empty,” said his lawyer Olivier Pardo. “The woman from the Socialist party says her memory was triggered by a poster of Eric Zemmour. So are we to believe her memory wasn’t triggered when she saw Eric Zemmour on television?”

But the allegations have put Zemmour and his employers under pressure. And with greater public exposure would come greater public scrutiny.

The Svengali of the far right

Macron’s campaign in 2017 has sharpened appetites and convinced many that it is possible to run for the presidency without a party and without experience. But Zemmour is no doubt aware Macron didn’t stroll into the Elysée but had ministerial aides, money and political heavyweights backing him.

“He is not a man who would sacrifice his comfortable lifestyle,” said a prominent rightwing political adviser. “He’s capable of intellectual transgressions but not real-life ones.”

“People who know him very well, his friends, know he won’t go all the way. It’s a little show that he is toying with,” he said.

There’s also the fear that Zemmour could scupper Le Pen’s chances in 2022, something his fanbase would never forgive.

“Of course he is aware of the risk,” said Ménard, mayor of Béziers, “And he is thinking about it. It’s definitely one of my concerns.”

But the speculation over whether Zemmour will run may be secondary to a potentially more potent phenomenon. In addition to his media appearances, Zemmour is building up a network that he can use as leverage at a time when immigration and security are key issues for voters.  

Zemmour’s online supporters, some from the gaming community, can be a significant force, said the official working in his movement. “You don’t need many, maybe 150, 200,” he said. “If they all push the same topic online, it starts trending.”

Such a force could be used to promote, damage or hold Le Pen to account. And beyond that, his supporters have noticed that French ministers are appearing on his evening show. That’s a sign that even Macron is listening.