Georgia crisis tests Western push to check Russian influence

TBILISI — Only six days ago, Georgia was drawing praise for pressing pause on a controversial police raid to capture the country’s top opposition leader. 

That ended Tuesday. 

During an early morning raid, Georgia police broke into the party headquarters of the United National Movement (UNM), where Nika Melia, the UNM chair, had been holed up. Local TV channels broadcasting the raid live showed police using what appeared to be pepper spray or tear gas as they clashed with Melia’s supporters barricaded inside, who had been attempting to prevent his arrest. In the end, the police dragged out Melia.

Moments later, the U.S. and European governments that had lauded Georgia last week were now warning that the Black Sea nation is dangerously faltering in its efforts to become a Western-aligned democracy. And in Tbilisi, protesters swiftly gathered outside Georgia’s parliament, blocking the main avenue through the capital. 

The arrest represents the latest twist in a long-running tug-of-war over the country’s relationship with Russia, whose troops have occupied around a fifth of its territory since a brief war between the two neighbors in 2008. Melia has been a key voice accusing the country’s leaders of drifting back into Moscow’s orbit, despite widespread popular support for closer integration with Europe and the West. His arrest thus presents a vexing challenge to Western countries trying to counteract Moscow’s revanchism — “the logic of escalation is getting the upper hand,” warned EU Ambassador Carl Hartzell.

The same challenge was on the mind of protests outside Georgia’s parliament on Tuesday, as people waved placards reading “Stop Putin’s Dream” and “We don’t want a return to the Soviet Union.”

“I don’t care about Nika Melia,” said Zura Mchedlishvili, one of those protesting outside parliament after the arrest. “This is about stopping Russian influence.”   

While the 41-year-old Melia’s profile has soared since taking over as UNM leader from the former President Mikheil Saakashvili, he has also faced criticism for what some say is his overly confrontational style.

“This is a bigger issue than Melia,” agreed Khatia Gremelashvili, a 25-year-old business analyst standing nearby. “The way things are going under this government, we are just going downhill economically and democratically.”

A brief pause

Last week, police had backed off from arresting Melia — ostensibly for violating bail conditions — after then-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia suddenly resigned, saying that detaining the high-profile opposition figure posed “unacceptable” risks at a time of increasing political polarization and as the country battles the pandemic.

But Gakharia’s successor, Irakli Garibashvili, quickly changed the narrative. 

On Tuesday, he called Melia “a criminal” in a statement congratulating the police for carrying out the arrest, which he said was about demonstrating that every Georgian citizen is “obliged to obey the rule of law,” regardless of status.  

But key Western allies were not impressed. 

“Georgia has moved backward on its path towards becoming a stronger democracy in the Euro-Atlantic family of nations,” the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said in a statement. 

In the U.S., Representative Adam Kinzinger — a Republican and long-time supporter of Georgia’s hopes of joining NATO — called Melia’s arrest “incredibly dumb” in one tweet. In an earlier post, Kinzinger had warned that continued U.S. support for Georgia was not guaranteed if it continued on its current path.

British Ambassador Mark Clayton said he had been “shocked” by the police raid to arrest Melia, adding that “violence and chaos in Tbilisi are the last thing Georgia needs right now.” 

Mounting tension

The arrest is the latest and most serious flare-up in a political crisis that has been simmering since last October, when the country’s Georgian Dream party claimed victory in parliamentary elections. 

The UNM and other opposition parties boycotted parliament after the vote, claiming the results were rigged and demanding another election. International observer groups gave qualified verdicts, with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) concluding that the vote had been “competitive and, overall, fundamental freedoms were respected,” but also noting there had been “pervasive allegations of pressure on voters.” 

Since Georgian Dream first won an election in 2012, opposition leaders have complained that the country has taken a more pro-Russian course at odds with the majority of the country’s desires. They accuse Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, of running the country from behind the scenes and cozying up to Russia.

Ivanishvili — who made his money in Russia in the cut-throat 1990s — has not publicly turned away from the West, but the country’s stance toward Moscow has softened in recent years, and pro-Russian parties have gained ground.

Melia has been among the most vocal in making this charge — helping lead a 2019 protest against Russian influence. A blunt headline on a Russian media report about his detention summed up the establishment view in Moscow: “Leader of anti-Russian demonstrations arrested.”

That protest two years ago also led to Melia’s arrest on incitement charges and the official case against him. But while the government maintains it is simply enforcing the rule of law, the opposition says it is using the case as a way to silence one of its most effective opponents.

One of Melia’s opposition allies, MP Elene Khoshtaria, painted Georgia’s political crisis as part of broader protest movements across the region. 

“There is a wave of people fighting for freedom, it’s in Belarus, it’s in Russia and it’s here in Georgia,” she said. “And it is in the strategic interest of the West to support these democratic movements.”

Language like this causes tremors in the Kremlin, which has long accused the West of interfering in a region that it regards as its backyard. But it has shown little interest in the views of Georgians, where opinion polls show solid public support for joining NATO and the EU.

Next steps

One former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul — who visited Georgia with then-Vice President Joe Biden in 2009 — on Tuesday called the Georgia situation the “third” big foreign policy test for now-President Biden’s new U.S. administration.

Some opposition voices are calling for a tougher Western response, including sanctions targeting Ivanishvili — similar to those imposed on Russia in response to the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. 

“I’m waiting to see the same in Georgia,” said Nino Burjanadze, a former parliamentary speaker who has also advocated a more accommodating stance toward the Kremlin in the past.

For all the defiance coming from Garibashvili, the new Georgian prime minister, he is unlikely to want further confrontation with the U.S. and European allies. Unlike in Belarus, the Georgian government has shown it cares how it is viewed in the West. There was a tacit acknowledgment of that from the Georgian Dream party chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze, defending Melia’s arrest.

“We understand that international partners have fears regarding the further polarization of political processes in Georgia,” he said in a statement. 

At the same time, it’s not clear how a long and protracted standoff can be avoided. U.S. and European envoys had been trying to mediate a compromise long before the crisis over Melia’s arrest. And still, Georgian Dream is refusing to back new elections, while the opposition is calling for more street protests.

Zura Mchedlishvili, his face in a red and blue mask as he stood outside parliament, had little hope: “I’m 36 and it just feels like we’re turning in circles.”