How to watch Germany’s (unexpectedly exciting) super election year like a pro

BERLIN — For most people, the words “German politics” induce one thing: boredom. Compared with the carnival-like debates in Italy, the Manichaean contests in France or the tabloid-fueled political buffoonery as Britons race “past the post,” Germany can seem shockingly staid. Important, yes, but dull.  

And yet, though the nature of German politics might best be described as glacial, even the thickest glaciers shift, and when they do, the entire landscape can suddenly become unrecognizable.

With Chancellor Angela Merkel set to leave office toward the end of the year, Germany is fast approaching such a moment.

On Sunday, Germany will kick off what it calls a Superwahljahr (super election year) with regional elections in two states:  Baden-Württemberg, headquarters for much of the country’s car industry, and Rhineland-Palatinate, former Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s home state. A string of local and state elections will follow, leading up to the grand finale on September 26, when Germans will elect a new federal parliament and, by extension, a new leader.

What makes this election season extraordinary by German standards is not just the departure of an incumbent after 16 years in power, but that no one really knows what comes next.

Conventional wisdom holds that Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats, often referred to as “the Union,” will form a coalition with the Greens in what would be the first such pairing at the national level. The Greens have supplanted the Social Democrats, the Union’s current coalition partner, as Germany’s No. 2 party, at least in the polls.

But we all know what they say about best-laid plans. And with more than six months until election day and the political environment more volatile than at any time in recent memory, the purported inevitability of a conservative-Green alliance should be taken with a grain of salt.

Just over the past week, the Union has found itself embroiled in a five-alarm political scandal involving allegations of bribery in mask procurement. The affair has already ensnared two conservative MPs, one a senior official in the Christian Social Union (CSU), the group’s Bavarian wing. Both MPs resigned from their parties, but by then the damage was done. The Union has taken a battering at the polls and looks increasingly likely to lose both state elections on Sunday.

Gitta Connemann, deputy leader of the Christian Democrats in parliament, described the affair in stark terms this week, saying it was the party’s “worst crisis” since a campaign-financing scandal at the end of the Kohl era that brought down the leadership, ushering in Merkel. 

It’s probably still too early to predict the mask affair’s magnitude. What is clear, however, is that the conservatives don’t have much time to right the ship. The scandal is already morphing into a broader examination of MPs’ extra-parliamentary income, and that scrutiny seems likely to trigger more uncomfortable revelations.

Another big question is who the conservative standard-bearer will be: CDU party leader Armin Laschet, or Markus Söder, leader of the Bavarian CSU. Söder is more popular and more charismatic, but no CSU candidate has ever won the chancellor race. A decision, which will be taken somewhere behind closed doors, isn’t expected until May.

Even if the conservatives go into the campaign wounded, their lead in the polls — about 15 percentage points currently — appears, barring catastrophe, insurmountable, meaning they are nearly certain to lead the next government.

Even so, a dip in support for the Union would undo the current coalition calculus, opening up a range of options. The liberal Free Democrats, for example, who have suffered in the polls in recent years, are showing new signs of life.

By September, the Greens and Social Democrats could also find they have enough support to bypass the Union altogether to form a left-wing alliance with Die Linke, the successor to East Germany’s communist party. In other words, the field is wide open.

Here’s POLITICO’S guide on how to watch what promises to be the most consequential German election in a generation.

What are the most important parties?

Germany has a 5 percent threshold for parties to enter parliament, the Bundestag. That both limits the number of parties in parliament and can place all of them in the coalition mix. In practice, that’s true of every party except for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), with which none of the other five groups represented in the Bundestag is willing to collaborate.

That leaves the following parties as viable candidates to govern: the center-right Christian Democrats (now at around 33 percent), the Greens (18 percent), Social Democrats (16 percent), Free Democrats (9 percent) and Die Linke (8 percent). 

What are the most likely coalitions?

At the moment, most observers are betting on a tie-up between the Christian Democrats and the Greens. A continuation of the current coalition between the conservatives and the Social Democrats is likely to be a mathematical option after the election, but it’s not a constellation either side is eager to renew after governing for most of the past decade together.

A three-way coalition between the Greens, Social Democrats and Die Linke would not currently have enough support, but is within striking distance.

Another wild card is coalition between the Christian Democrats and the FDP. Like the left-wing option, the pairing would have more ideological symmetry than most of the other combinations. The two also have a long history of governing together. Still, polls currently suggest it’s unlikely.

What are the main campaign issues?

It’s still early, but the question of how Germany will jumpstart its economy once the pandemic passes is already dominating much of the internal party debates. Germany has weathered the crisis better than most EU countries in terms of economic performance, but many are still suffering dire economic consequences.

While the government has stepped in with emergency aid measures, the bills are piling up and many spendthrift Germans are already fretting about how the country will pay it all back. That fear may be irrational, given the power of the German economy and the stability of its finances, yet the question of when the country can return to its beloved “black zero,” the balanced budget, is already influencing the political rhetoric.

Beyond the economy, the pandemic itself will continue to dominate the debate, especially if the government fails on its promise to offer vaccines to all Germans who want them by the end of summer. 

In addition to such acute matters, the campaign will likely focus on a familiar stew of issues, from the environment to migration, with a bit of Europe in the mix. 

Why do the regional elections matter?

At first blush, the state ballots in rural regions like Thuringia or Saxony-Anhalt would seem to have little bearing on the larger picture. But it would be a mistake to ignore them. The state results determine the composition of the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper chamber. Governments need Bundesrat approval to push through their legislative agendas. And with six regional elections on the calendar this year, much is at stake.   

How does voting work?

The German voting system is a little complicated, so buckle up for this part.

Each voter gets two votes: one for their local representative and the other to choose a party. Each candidate who wins in their district automatically gets a seat. But the parties’ overall share of seats in parliament is determined by the percentage of second votes they win, so this is the number most widely reported on election night. The parties fill up the seats they win through second votes based on regional candidate lists.

The minimum number of seats in parliament is 598, but this can grow through something called “overhang seats.” These are allocated when, for example, a party wins 10 districts in a region through the first votes, but only earns enough of the second votes to earn eight seats. Since anyone who wins their district through first votes is entitled to a seat, that party gets to keep the extra — or “overhang” — seats.

But this would mean the party would be over-represented in parliament. To fix this, other parties get additional “balance seats” to even things up. Ultimately, the Bundestag could, in theory, swell to have 800 members. The current one has 709.

Emma Anderson contributed reporting.