India, China may slip into conflict that neither wants: US report

The United States government’s National Intelligence Council has warned that India and China may slip into a conflict that neither government intends, “especially if military forces escalate a conflict quickly to challenge each other on a critical part of the contested border”.

In a ‘Global Trends’ report produced every four years, it carried a similar warning for India and Pakistan, saying, “India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant.”

The report, released in Washington last week, has come at a time when India and China are engaged in a process to disengage along the Line of Actual Control and just days after India and Pakistan entered into a ceasefire arrangement.

It also focused on India’s rebalancing efforts in South Asia and said that the country would probably look for ways to mitigate Chinese influence given China’s expanding foothold in the Indian Ocean. “For example, India almost certainly will continue to encourage Japan to offer economic investment and some military cooperation to other South Asian countries to push them to align more closely with New Delhi and Tokyo,” it said.

However, the balancing approach, particularly in relation to China, also affects regional dynamics, according to the report. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka probably judge that they “can more easily deflect New Delhi’s demands or block its regional leadership aspirations by maintaining ties with Beijing”, it said.

The report predicted that despite their growing interest in China, almost every government in the region would seek to maintain ties with the US as part of its balancing efforts. The US is the biggest export market for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and most South Asian leaders continue to cultivate and publicly tout their relationships with Washington, it said.

The report focuses on both immediate and distant future and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.

It said the ability of some militant groups to carry out attacks, India’s resolve to retaliate against Pakistan after such an attack, and Pakistan’s determination to defend itself “are likely to persist and may increase” in the next five years.