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Though bilateral issues are also generating susceptibility towards each other, India, because of its status as a major global power can bring both Russia and the US to the negotiating table.
Cold Peace
While the global geopolitical structure is undergoing a fast and rapid change in recent years, however, the relations between the two Cold War era rivals, Russia (the inheritor of the then Soviet Union) and the United States has not improved as expected. Instead, the same Cold War ferocity can be observed in their bilateral relations. This is leaving a significant dent on the global security framework which propelled strategic thinkers to coin a phrase popular in the textbooks of International Relations, i.e, “New Cold War”. However, one has to underline here that instead of “New Cold War” the phrase “Cold Peace” needs to be highlighted more emphatically to characterise the present day state of global politics. This is because of the following four reasons: a) Deployment of advanced weapons by both the parties is continuously going on : b) both the countries are encircling each other as a strategic choice; c) trade sanctions are emerging as the most potent weapon ; d) there is no war or direct confrontation between Russia and the US.
At the same time, two potent questions which need to be addressed here are:
- Whether the “ Cold Peace” between Russia and the US will continue or it will lead to actual war in the post-Biden era ?
- What are the implications of the state of relationship between these two countries on India which is maintaining as an equitable strategic partnership with both Russia and the United States?
The first question needs to be addressed here is why “Cold Peace” between the two countries which is continuing since the last two decades or more is changing in recent months ? Whether the new President of the US, Joe Biden, will pursue a more hawkish policy towards Russia which may escalate the confrontation to a new level? These are a few of the questions can be observed from the writings of strategic pundits who are focussing on Russia-US relations from a close quarter. At the same time the third question that generally comes to one’s mind is whether post-pandemic geopolitics will have a tethering effect on these two countries in terms of their rapprochement?
Nuclear Disarmament
When President Biden took over as the US President, two interesting developments occurred which offered a paradoxical picture about Russia-US relations. Biden, extended the New START Treaty till 2026. This raised a lot of expectations from many quarters that despite not much bonhomie in their bilateral relations, both Biden and Putin agree to the proposition of nuclear disarmament . This move also raised much expectations from many quarters that “Cold Peace” is as relevant as it was during the Cold War era. However, soon after the engagement, the bilateral relations again took a U-turn and as expected the relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply. This was on the question of nuclear issues of Iran and secondly on the Ukrainian crisis.
Iran Crisis
While on the question of Iran, Washington wants that Teheran should enter into a negotiation process so that its sanctions could be waived off. However, the latter is quite adamant about not entering into any sort of negotiations with the former. Though the Vienna round of negotiation addressed the issue of the ways and means of ending the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOPA) against Iran but things are not so rosy. The Iranian side is insisting on returning to the 2015 level. As Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote on his twitter account dated April 9, 2021 “ US—which caused this crisis—should return to full compliance first” and on the other hand, Russian Ambassador for negotiation, Mikhail Ulyanov in his personal Twitter account dated April 6, 2021 highlighted that “ The Joint Commission meeting of JCPOA was successful. Two expert-level groups (on sanctions lifting and nuclear issues) were tasked to identify concrete measures to be taken by Washington and Tehran to restore full implementation of JCPOA.” Though Russia is playing an important role in ending the crisis but it needs to be highlighted here that Russia is more interested in using the Iran crisis as a pawn to improve its own bargaining position with the US. The Iranian nuclear impasse will create a new source of conflict between the Biden Administration and the Kremlin as the nuclear issue between the two countries will not die down soon.
Ukranian Crisis
Along with the Iranian issue, the lingering Ukrainian crisis is going to shape the relations between Russia and the US. As has been observed in the past as well, the Ukrainian crisis will be a litmus test for Russia as far as its outreach to entire Eastern Europe is concerned. It may be mentioned here that since the Colour revolution which took place in 2004 in Ukraine and later the Crimea crisis of 2014 further heightened the conflict between Russia and the US. The subsequent sanctions by the Western countries led by the US on Russia further heightened the bad blood between these two countries. The western sanctions are putting a strain on the Russian economy including its energy relations with the European countries. Along with sanctions, the growing expansion of NATO and deployment of its troops in the Russian border is reigniting the Cold war era memory. Looking at the present conflict situation in Ukraine, it may be recalled here that the Minsk agreement was signed between Russia, Ukraine and Donetsk People’s Republic in 2014 and subsequently amended in 2015 to end the hostility.
Though the Minsk Agreement urges for a ceasefire, the present move, by both Russia and Ukraine is creating a more volatile situation. The conflict between Russia-Ukraine basically started, as reported by Russian news agency Tass on March 26, 2021, when the troops of Donetsk shot down two UAVs of Ukraine. However, this incident has reignited the old conflict and as reported Russia is also mobilising its troops in the last couple of days as stated by Dmitry Peskov, the high official of Kremlin that Ukraine has turned into a “power keg”. He defended the troop mobilisation on the grounds that it is protecting the civilians to whom Russia called its “Citizens” as reported in the British Newspaper, The Guardian, dated April 9, 2021. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reportedly sought active support from NATO to end the impasse. Though NATO’s troops conducted military exercises in a symbolic support to Ukraine, they also propelled Russia to assemble its own troops near the Ukrainian border. What one is witnessing is that Russia and NATO troops are in a face-to-face situation. Undoubtedly, Russia-Ukraine relations are strained but they also provided an opportunity to Moscow and Washington to mend their relations. As reported on Kremlin’s website, US President Biden made a telephone call to President Putin on April 13, 2021 where both the Presidents discussed measures to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The same website also stated that Putin outlined measures to resolve the dispute through “ Minsk Package of Measures”. Though talks took place between President Biden and President Putin to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it appears that the state of affairs between Russia and US is not so cordial. This partly stems from mutual apprehensions and misperceptions on various global and bilateral issues.
Afghan Fiasco
It is in this context, one needs to mention here that along with the Iranian nuclear crisis and the Ukrainian fiasco, Afghanistan is emerging as a thorny issue in recent months between Russia and the US. One moot point of divergence between the two is on the issue of engaging the Taliban . Moscow’s greater engagement with Taliban which many consider as an alternative to Washington’s initiative has put both the adversaries stand apart. It appears that Moscow is keen to have a greater footprint in this trouble torn country once US troops leave on September 11 as reported in media. Though both the presidents discussed the situation of Afghanistan in their April 13 telephonic conversation, nothing clear is emerging regarding the future of Afghanistan. However, if Russia will strengthen its active collaboration with the Taliban and facilitate its return to power by side-lining the existing moderate political dispersions led by Ashraf Ghani, then there may be a new power struggle.
The US administration is also not in favour of greater engagement of Russia in Afghanistan because it will facilitate entry of both the China and Pakistan into Afghanistan. It is a well-known fact that both China and Pakistan are `propping up Taliban to achieve their own nefarious geopolitical interest in this trouble torn country. Russia’s mending of ties with China and Pakistan will also boomerang in the long run because the latter two countries will isolate the former. In that case, Afghanistan will again return to the post-1979 situation. In this regard, the more prudent policy for Afghanistan is that both the US and Russia should cooperate with each other along with the democratically elected Ashraf Ghani government. The Biden Administration should also focus more on stabilising the situation rather than on fixing a timeline for withdrawing its troops keeping in mind the regional peace and security.
Emerging Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific and China Factor
Another contentious issue that is going to create dissonance between Russia and US under the Biden administration is the question of the Indo-Pacific and China. With regards to the Indo-Pacific, Russian policy makers are quite apprehensive of the emergence of this geopolitical arc in its periphery since 2015 when this region came into prominence. The Putin administration thinks that this geopolitical manoeuvring was done basically to encircle Russia by the United States. The emergence of Quad as a security structure further generated a lot of apprehensions for Russia and compounded Russia’s imaginary strategic uncertainty. However, it needs to be highlighted here that Quad is here to checkmate the aggressive and imperial designs of China in the Indo-Pacific region. Quad as the last virtual Summit highlighted, includes other areas of cooperation including climate change, sustainable security etc. It is wrong on part of Russian foreign policy makers to think that Quad is “directed” against Russia. Whatever strategic apprehensions Russia has are primarily based on imaginary threats and not actual ones.
This imaginary threat of Russia over Indo-Pacific is basically prompted by China. Of course, there are annual military exercises conducted by Quad countries in the last couple of years but they is not directed against Russia. Hopefully, Russia will clear its apprehension towards Quad. Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his visit to India recently stated in a press briefing (reproduced in mid.ru), both countries are “not forming” any “military alliance” but the growing supply of advanced weapons to China by Russia is generating much apprehension. Similarly, China will remain a major factor in Russia-US relations. There are four major elements involved in Russia-US relations as far as the question of China is involved. These are : a) the level of Russia-China defense cooperation which is alarming the United States; b) Russia’s support to China’s BRI Project and Polar Silk Road in Arctic ;c) Constant support being provided by Russia to China at various international multilateral forums which has irked the US administration over the years including trade related issues; d) Russia’s consistent support to China on normative issues like human rights, democracy promotion , etc.
Some of the above-mentioned factors will provide the basis for Russia-US relations in future.
Perceptional ‘Normative Divergence’ on Bilateral Issues
In addition to some of the trajectories discussed above, another major bone of contention between the two countries is over the question of democracy and human rights. The recent arrest and trial of Alexei Navalny is a bone of contention between the two countries. President Biden’s remarks against President Putin levelling him as a “Killer” prompted a major war of words between the two countries and on social media. Similarly, Russia by questioning the “legitimacy” of President Biden’s election in the initial days after he assumed office also prompted suspicion in the mind of Biden Administration towards Russia. The threat of banning Western social media sites in Russia has also caused much uneasiness to their bilateral ties. However, the most crucial issue is that Russia wants western sanctions on it should be withdrawn. Though Russian analysts are saying that sanctions do not have an effect on its economy but the economic condition of Russia is much grimmer especially after the fall of oil prices in the international market.
Climate Negotiation
Along with some of these issues, what needs to be looked into is the issue of climate change. The recent banning of oil exploration by the Biden administration in the Alaskan part of Arctic to checkmate environmental degradation and protect the climate may also cause a conflict of interest. As Russia also shares the Arctic and if the US were to demand that Russia should also pursue similar measures, then it may have a great impact on their bilateral relations. As studies suggest, Russia is also experiencing similar climate changes at a faster rate because of the melting of Arctic permafrost.
Looking at some of these issues from a broader strategic perspective, it is very difficult to bring a process of reconciliation between the two countries. Some of them are inherited from the Soviet legacy and few other irritants are cropping up in recent years. However, major areas of disagreement between the two countries are on regional and global issues where both of them want to have greater sway in the different competitive geopolitical spaces of the post-Cold War era.
India’s Perception
However, the point that needs to be analysed here is how India looks at Russia-US relations? This is because India is emerging as a major power in global politics, and at the same time it has shared good relations with both countries over the years. It is in this context, India can play a role in bringing rapprochement between Russia and US? One may recall that the strained relationship between Russia and US impacts India as well. For instance, because of American sanctions on Russia, India’s access to the Russian defense market is also constrained which includes the delivery of S-400 system.
Similarly, on the Afghan issue, the Russia-US confrontation over the peace process is acting as a major stumbling block . This is because both Moscow and Washington have different geopolitical interests in the context of the Afghan conflict as discussed above. On the other hand, India can bring both US and Russia to the negotiating table along with Ashraf Ghani’s government for bringing reconciliation to the conflict. India has always emphasised on an “Afghan led, Afghan controlled and Afghan owned” peace process. India also supports the democratically elected Ashraf Ghani government and “sustainable security” in Afghanistan. This approach is the best means to ensure a reconciliation process.
In the Indo-Pacific region, India can balance both Russia and US. Since the Indo-Pacific constitutes an important component of the present geopolitical discourses, it is essential to highlight here that Russia should adjust itself to the changing situation rather than clogging to the Chinese perception of Indo-Pacific. A “safe and secure” Indo-Pacific is important for India, Russia and US. At the same time, building a cooperative geopolitical order in Indo-Pacific is also a strategic necessity . This will help in the flourishing free flow of trade and commerce in the region. So, checkmating the Chinese hegemonic policy in the Indo-Pacific is also necessary for ensuring securitisation in the region.
In addressing climate change issues as well, India can play a role in bringing these two strategic foes on a common platform. The return of Washington to the Paris Climate Agreement is a positive step as it will strengthen multilateralism. At the same, all three countries- India, Russia and US are also moving towards renewable energy. Both India and Russia have a more or less similar view on “differential responsibility”. Hopefully, the United States will also be able to adopt a more pragmatic policy in addressing the climate issues.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, it can be argued that though there is a perception emanating from various quarters that the relations between Russia and US will be more hostile under the Biden Administration, this can change and a “Cold Peace” will prevail between the two countries. Iran’s nuclear crisis, Indo-Pacific geopolitics, Ukrainian fiasco or the Afghan impasse will certainly provide an opportunity to both Moscow and Washington to rethink their aggressive policies towards each other, and at the same time bring some sort of détente in their bilateral relations. India being a great power will certainly balance both Russia and US for promoting a peaceful global order. It is in this context. India, Russia and US can initiate a new kind of trilateral strategic cooperation.
The writer teaches at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He can be reached at nalin238@gmail.com
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