UK Labour losing hope over next big by-election fight

LONDON — The U.K. opposition Labour Party is not hopeful of winning a crucial upcoming by-election.

In public, Shadow Home Secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds insisted Labour, battered by recent elections, could retain the Batley and Spen parliamentary seat. But behind the scenes, the party is not so optimistic.

A senior Labour official predicted a loss in the by-election, currently penciled in for July, and insisted high Conservative support in the polls and the situation on the ground meant it would be “incredibly difficult” to win.

A loss in the seat, where Labour has a slim 3,525 majority, would serve a fresh blow to leader Keir Starmer, after Labour lost a crucial by-election in Hartlepool alongside a disappointing set of local election results earlier this month. 

Asked in a POLITICO Live interview whether Labour could hold on in Batley and Spen, Thomas-Symonds said: “Yes, and we’ll be working extremely hard to do that and that’s what we have to do. We have to be out there fighting for every single vote.”

But the Labour official said: “I don’t think we will win. I can see a path to it but the situation on the ground and in the country is what it is. The idea we can magic up some policy offer that trumps the vaccine rollout and reopening the country is for the birds.”

The Batley and Spen contest was triggered after Tracy Brabin won the West Yorkshire mayoral race, meaning she had to give up her parliamentary seat. The constituency has a different demographic makeup to Hartlepool, but the fundamentals on the ground are similar. For starters, the Conservatives are riding high in national polls as the coronavirus vaccine is rolled out.

Meanwhile, there is fringe right-wing support in the seat that is expected to split for the Conservatives, most notably from the Heavy Woollen District Independents, who advocated a “clean” Brexit and cuts to foreign aid in its 2019 election campaign. The party has said it might not stand a candidate at all for the by-election. 

Labour could also come under pressure if its former MP George Galloway stands in the seat, and officials stress that trust among voters still needs to be built following the tenure of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a veteran left-wing MP.

Kim Leadbeater, the sister of former Batley and Spen MP Jo Cox, who was murdered during the 2016 Brexit campaign, is the favorite to become the Labour candidate for the race. Symonds refused to be drawn on whether the Labour candidate should be local. “They should be whoever is chosen by the Labour Party working together with the local constituency party,” he said.

If Starmer fails to win the by-election he could face open calls to resign. “If Batley and Spen is held comfortably, Keir will plod on. If it’s lost he will have to go,” said one former frontbench MP who supported Starmer at the start of his leadership but has become increasingly critical as Starmer struggles to connect with voters.

But Thomas-Symonds dismissed the suggestion Starmer would have to resign: “Keir Starmer is the right person for this job.” The Labour official also insisted the leader would remain in post no matter what.

The Conservatives are also playing down expectations in Batley and Spen. “It’s winnable but the demographics are different to Hartlepool,” one Cabinet minister said.

Senior Conservative activists said it would depend on what the Heavy Woollen District Independents and the Reform Party, a rebranding of the Brexit Party once led by Nigel Farage, decide to do, as well as who is picked as the Conservative candidate. “The seat has always somehow eluded us since the 1990s,” one said.