New poll signals potential dip in GOP voter participation in upcoming elections

In total, 75% of respondents said the election had made them more likely to vote in the next presidential contest, while only 11% said they were less likely to do so. But the partisan breakdown was notable: While 84% of Democrats counted themselves more likely to vote, just 69% of Republicans agreed, a 15-point difference. In fact, 16% of GOP respondents said they were less likely to vote next around compared to just 6% of Democrats who said the same.

The results are to be taken with a grain of salt for several reasons, including the failure of surveys throughout the 2020 cycle to accurately capture support for Trump. But even if this poll failed to get the right mix of conservative voters, the responses are still telling for the Republicans who did participate in the survey. In addition, as The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake notes, self-identified Trump voters formed the group most likely to signal doubt about their future participation, with nearly 1 in 5 (or 19%) saying they were less likely to vote next time around.

The results generally reflect the potential for a somewhat depressed GOP base heading into the Georgia runoffs. And while it’s hard to conclude much—if anything—about turnout in those all-important races on Jan. 5th, the data can’t be welcome news for GOP strategists already fretting over what effect Trump’s continued attacks on the state’s voting systems will have on conservative voters.

The survey also represents a departure from past post-election polls. In 2016, for instance, 80% of both Democratic and Republican voters signaled the election had made them more likely to vote in the next election. Those results were also consistent with results in 2000, with 80% of voters on both sides of the aisle indicating they would be more likely to vote next time around even as post-election litigation continued over the race’s outcome.

Turnout in the Georgia runoff is a total mystery, with zero comparable priors to lend insight. We’re all flying blind here but at least Democrats are coming off a win in the state and aren’t weighted down by an ongoing civil war within their party. 

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