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Leaving the United Kingdom “would be two to three times more costly” for Scotland than the effects of Brexit, according to a report released on Wednesday.
Analysis by the London School of Economics’ (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance found Scotland’s trade with the rest of the U.K. is around four times larger than its EU trade. The creation of a border between Scotland and the rest of the U.K. would increase costs by 15 percent in an “optimistic scenario” and 30 percent in a “pessimistic” one, according to the LSE.
The LSE estimated that the impact of independence, in addition to Brexit, would reduce Scottish incomes per capita by between 6.5 and 8.7 percent in the long term.
The study comes as the Scottish National Party has renewed its push for another independence referendum following Brexit.
The LSE concluded that the trade benefits of rejoining the EU would not be enough to justify the cost of leaving the United Kingdom, “since the benefits of lowering trade barriers with the EU by rejoining are roughly offset by the costs of putting the EU’s external border between Scotland and the rest of the U.K.”
The study noted that rejoining the bloc would be more beneficial than remaining in the U.K. “only if independence is sufficiently trade-destroying that the rest of the U.K. becomes a less important trade partner for Scotland than the EU.”
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